The MoonSwatch is the best thing to happen to the watch industry in the last 10 years

Russell Sheldrake

You cannot change my mind that the Swatch x Omega Bioceramic MoonSwatch has been the biggest story in watches in the last 10 years – and by the end of this article, you’ll say the same. There have been very few other watches that have broken out of our bubble and into the mainstream the same way this unique collaboration has, and that can not only be seen in the sales figures (which we will get to later) but in the secondary market, column inches dedicated to the watch, and the type of person that is aware of it. There has been a real cultural impact as well as a financial one from the MoonSwatch, and I want to explore both here.

While many in the watch world have a growing sense that Swatch has ‘jumped the shark’ with the number of releases and editions of the MoonSwatch, the continued passion and fervour we have seen with every release seems to fly in the face of this impression from insiders. Simplifying the MoonSwatch down to this one-sided view takes away from the true impact it has had and continues to have. Even we here at Time+Tide question if the next release will cause a stir when we see the teasers announced on the Swatch Instagram, and the doubters on our team get proven wrong, time and time again. So let’s dig into the most talked-about watch of the last five years, what has made it such a phenomenon and see if I’m right in saying the MoonSwatch is the most impactful watch of the last decade.

The history

We’ve had the pleasure of the MoonSwatch for over three years now, and it’s been a bit of a wild ride. Back in early 2022, the world was a surprisingly different place from what it is today. Hype culture was doubling down as the world emerged from the pandemic. Meme stocks, crypto billionaires, and monkeys in hats were dominating the NFT market. All of these factors, I think, built into the initial success and craze of the MoonSwatch, and that’s without mentioning the booming watch industry in both primary and secondary worlds.

While the watch market was riding the post-COVID wave, and the secondary market was about to face its biggest bubble burst in decades, there was a lot to be happy about in the industry, and then we got this jolt of energy from a rather unexpected place. Omega was coming off the success of No Time to Die and the delayed Tokyo Olympics happening the year previous. Swatch was continuing to release fun, creative watches, and they also introduced their first models in their innovative Bioceramic material in early 2021. The stage was set for something big, but no one really knew what or where it would come from.

The launch of the MoonSwatch took the watch world by storm. It caused waves that not only washed over all of us but also flooded out into the mainstream media, with fashion, culture, lifestyle, and business publications sitting up and taking notice of this craze. This meant waitlists were replaced by crowds outside of Swatch stores on launch day, with police having to be called to many of the stores. And trying to find another watch release that caused this much pandemonium is pretty hard.

Never before had two brands inside the same group come together in such a way. Having the historic Maison of Omega with all of its prestige of being the first watch on the Moon, commercialising the Co-Axial escapement, and sending watches to the deepest depths of the ocean, teaming up with the brand designed to be an affordable second watch for people who already owned a prestige Swiss watch like an Omega was a concept not many had seen coming. A mixing of high and low in a way that brought the very concept of Omega into streetwear culture, flipper culture, and hype culture, a move no one could have predicted.

The numbers

I think the first place we need to look when we are considering just how impactful and positive the MoonSwatch has been is the numbers, because as a wise man once said, numbers don’t lie. As many will already know, the Swatch Group is typically secretive when it comes to its sales figures, not releasing any to the public; however, thanks to the hard work of LuxeConsult, we can get an idea of the scale of the MoonSwatch phenomenon and place it into some kind of context. It should be pointed out, the numbers that LuxeConsult produce can only be classified as estimates based off their own research, as no official figures are provided by the brand.

In its first year, roughly 930,000 MoonSwatchs left stores – an incredible number to start with which speaks to those endless queues that we would see outside Swatch stores the world over. But in 2023, it is believed this number jumped to 2 million units, more than doubling. This significant increase happened during the period where there was a seemingly endless stream of Moonshine editions coming out, with the only difference being a slightly different seconds hand. This has often been flagged by enthusiasts as one of the big contributing factors to a phenomenon that has been coined “MoonSwatch Fatigue”. However, the numbers don’t really reflect that.

We move into 2024, and it looks like the numbers do take a slight dip, down to 1.5 million units sold, but the talk in the community of everyone being tired of the MoonSwatch seems to be debunked at this point. And while the total units sold may be down, the share of brand sales that the MoonSwatch represented in 2024 actually went up when compared to 2023, from 60% to 64%. This is an incredible dominance from one family of products to have for a business like Swatch that carries so many lines in so many different territories across the world. To me, that suggests that the MoonSwatch is one of the few models that is universally adored, no matter what territory it is being sold in.

The one important metric that the MoonSwatch seems to have had little effect on is the stock price of the overall Swatch Group. The stock hit a 5-year high back in 2023 when it was trading at around CHF 330, however, from early March 2023, there has been a steady decline to where it is now sitting: around CHF 150 at the time of writing. There are also reportedly other forces at play affecting the Swatch share price, but none of them are worth mentioning here as they do not matter for this story. Of course, Swatch is just one brand inside the massive stable of brands that is the Swatch Group, and it has the lowest price point out of all the brands in the group.

The success of the Swatch brand can also be seen in other metrics, such as where it ranks in the table of Swiss brands when ordered by annual turnover. This is a table that LuxeConsult brings out every year, and it is always illuminating to see who the risers and fallers are every year. While most brands may shift one or two spots a year, generally staying in the same area, Swatch suddenly appeared inside the top 20 in 2023, jumping all the way up to 13th, beating out much more prestigious brands such as Jaeger-LeCoultre, TAG Heuer, and Tudor. This, for many, proved just how impactful the MoonSwatch had become.

Another factor that you cannot ignore is how much people are willing to pay for these watches on the secondary market. As we all know, it is here on the secondary market where the true value of a watch is set, and the most extreme example is the one millionth MoonSwatch produced selling for CHF 69,300 back in November of last year. But it got really crazy just after the launch, when we were seeing listings pop up on sites like Chrono24 and eBay for insane prices like US$2,400. We should also not forget the knock-on effect this release had on its big brother, as Speedmaster sales went up 50% after the MoonSwatch launch.

The culture

This is a little harder to quantify than the previous sections; however, I think just as important to the story and to show how impactful this collaboration has been. Outside of the Casio F-91W, it’s hard to think of another accessibly priced watch that has had the same level of cut-through in mainstream culture as the MoonSwatch. They are almost impossible to miss in today’s media. Whether you are seeing celebs wear them, such as Ed Sheeran and Spike Lee; or spotting them popping up in TV shows like The White Lotus, I cannot be the only one to notice the abundance that you see on wrists when out and about.

Personally, the MoonSwatch is the watch my non-watch friends are most likely to send to me on Instagram or WhatsApp. They are getting exposed to it without having to venture onto specialist sites like ours. And this is because of how other subcultures outside of the watch world are able to connect with this watch.

The price is certainly one factor that makes it accessible to those who aren’t embedded in our community, but also, I think it comes down to the nature of how they are released. The “drop” of new versions with physical queues forming outside stores is reminiscent of streetwear brands like Supreme or Palace in the way they release their hot products. While watch guys might not bat an eye at getting put on a wait list, the idea of queueing outside a boutique is basically alien to us. This could be part of the reason why so many in the watch community don’t feel like the MoonSwatch is for them any more, yet, when a new release comes out, there are still queues out the door for it at Swatch boutiques around the world. Those collecting them are not seasoned watch collectors, but those whose interests lie more in fashion, streetwear, and hype.

In my belief, I see this crossover as nothing but positive. The watch world needed something to bridge the gap between it and other passionate fan bases. Collaborating with graffiti artists hadn’t worked at this scale, nor had countless athlete ambassadors, but making something that those in other cultures can understand from a conceptual perspective hit all the right notes. There is nothing pretentious about the MoonSwatch; there is nothing about it that could intellectually challenge those who don’t know watches. The introduction of Snoopy to the collection has only broadened its cultural impact – a cartoon character that’s recognisable across the board, but again, not divisive or niche. And while we in the watch community recognise Snoopy’s connection to NASA and the Space Race, others see it as just a fun, nostalgic inclusion.

If we look at the impact of the MoonSwatch inside of watch culture for a second, I don’t think we get the new TAG Heuer Formula 1 release without the success of the MoonSwatch; at least we don’t see such a positive reception to it without this phenomenon preceding it. We certainly wouldn’t have had the bioceramic Blancpain x Swatch Scuba Fifty Fathoms. The acceptance that high and low in the watch industry can combine in a meaningful and impactful way has now become the norm and I don’t think we’ve seen the last of it.

What’s next?

It’s hard for me to draw comparisons, and by extension, produce some kind of prediction, to something else in the industry. The only other watches that I can think of that currently have so much sway over an entire company are the PRX at Tissot and the Royal Oak at Audemars Piguet, two very different examples and very different ends of the industry. The AP has arguably had more cultural cut through than the PRX, as you can see it in more media and on more celebrities’ wrists, but that will be down to the price point and the legend built around its design and continual production.

Something all three of these watches have in common is that they leverage the historical importance of their design. This has been a vitally important strategy for the watch industry in the last 20 years, and will continue to be so as we place more and more importance on longevity and stories. The biggest celebrations in this industry are around anniversaries, and the biggest controversies are around new designs – AP’s Code 11.59 being a great example of this – and if that doesn’t show you how much reverence we have for the old and scepticism we have about the new, then I’m not sure what will.

The biggest impact that I have witnessed from the MoonSwatch is the way in which it has acted as a gateway drug for people, especially young people, into the culture of watches. This is what many optimists thought smart watches would do, as people got used to having something on their wrist, but as we’ve seen, this has just led to more smart watch and fitness tracker sales than seeing widespread conversions to mechanical watches. But when someone buys their first MoonSwatch, they are now far more likely to want to learn more about watches and end up buying more. A great example is my barber: his wife gave him a MoonSwatch as a wedding present, and now he’s looking into other pieces. This man has been cutting my hair for over eight years and not once has he shown any interest in watches, but now he has a Mission to the Moon on his wrist, he’s started talking to me about them more.

If I were to look into the crystal ball here and guess what the future has in store for the MoonSwatch, I don’t think we will see a slowing down of releases. It is clear that the watch is still a leader in its price point and a hero product for the Swatch brand. And just like sneaker drops, if you’re not releasing new, hard-to-get product, then you’re dead. While watch snobs will continue to decry the collaboration, I believe it still has a lot of life left in it, and I hope we see more creativity in its development. I don’t think we will see anything else come out that is similar to it that could challenge it, and that is purely because this has been so successful; anything else will always be seen as inferior and a direct competitor. You only have to look at the Scuba Fifty Fathoms for proof of that. So those who want a Swatch x Hamilton Ventura, I wouldn’t hold your breath…

Lastly, and this is a purely selfish ask, I want to see this watch take on different forms. We came really close with the 1965 release that teased what competitor watches would look like in Bioceramic, but I would like to see different generations of Speedmaster in Bioceramic, whether its the Reduced or go really crazy with an ana-digi version of the X-33, but I think throwing a bone to the serious collectors, and those who love Omega history would be a great thing to see.

It’s clear that the MoonSwatch has made an enormous impact across our industry and has become an unavoidable topic. There is no other watch that has such widespread appeal, whilst simultaneously causing such widespread controversy. And that is a perfect combination for causing an impact. The 2020s will be remembered in the watch as the decade defined by the MoonSwatch, of that I have no doubt.